如何理解这个世界:李光耀的12条世界观

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本文来自Farnam Street网站。当下的世界纷纷扰扰,很多观点难以辨别和讨论。回味亚洲顶级政治家的12条世界观,或许可以帮助我们更好的了解这个世界和国家。


“It’s no accident that Singapore has a much better record, given where it started, than the United States. There, power was concentrated in one enormously talented person, Lee Kuan Yew, who was the Warren Buffett of Singapore.”

— Charlie Munger


新加坡有比美国更好的成绩,并不是偶然。在那里,权力集中在一个非常有才华的人手里,李光耀,他是新加坡的沃伦巴菲特。

查理芒格


Singapore seemed destined for failure or subservience to a more powerful neighbor. The country is by far the smallest in Southeast Asia and was not gifted with many natural resources. Lee Kuan Yew thought otherwise. “His vision,” wrote Henry Kissinger, “was of a state that would not simply survive, but prevail by excelling. Superior intelligence, discipline, and ingenuity would substitute for resources.”


新加坡似乎注定要失败或屈从于一个更强大的邻国。这个国家是东南亚最小的国家,没有很多自然资源。李光耀不这么认为。他的愿景,亨利·基辛格写道,是让这个国家不仅仅生存下来,而且因为卓越而广受尊敬。卓越的智慧,纪律和独创性将替代资源。”


To give you an idea of the magnitude of success that Lee Kuan Yew achieved, when he took over, per capita income was about $400 and now, in only about two generations, it exceeds $50,000.


为了让你了解李光耀取得的成功程度,当他接任时,新加坡人均收入约为400美元,而现在,仅仅两代人就超过了50,000美元。


Here are 12 things I learned from Lee Kuan Yew about the world and the source of many of our present ills reading Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights on China, the United States, and the World


以下是我读《李光耀论中国、美国和世界》了解到的关于世界的12件事,以及我们目前很多问题的来源。


1. You need a free exchange of ideas. “China will inevitably catch up to the U.S. in absolute GDP. But its creativity may never match America’s, because its culture does not permit a free exchange and contest of ideas.”


你需要思想的自由交换。中国在绝对GDP方面将不可避免地赶上美国。但它的创造力可能永远不会与美国相媲美,因为它的文化不允许思想的自由交换和竞争。


2. Technology will change how governance operates. “Technology is going to make (China’s) system of governance obsolete. By 2030, 70% or maybe 75% of their people will be in cities, small towns, big towns, mega big towns. They are going to have cell phones, Internet, satellite TV. They are going to be well-informed; they can organize themselves. You cannot govern them the way you are governing them now, where you just placate and monitor a few people, because the numbers will be so large.”


技术将改变政府治理的运作方式。技术将使(中国)治理体系过时。到2030年,70%或75%的人口将来自城市,小城镇,大城镇,超级城镇。他们将拥有手机,互联网,卫星电视。他们将充分了解情况; 他们可以组织起来。你不能像现在一样管理他们,现在你只需要你安抚和监视少数一些人,但那时数字会很大。“


3. Don’t try to install a democracy in a country that has never had one. “I do not believe you can impose on other countries standards which are alien and totally disconnected with their past. So to ask China to become a democracy, when in its 5,000 years of recorded history it never counted heads; all rulers ruled by right of being the emperor, and if you disagree, you chop off heads, not count heads.”


不要试图在一个从未有过民主的国家建立民主。我不相信你可以强加给其他国家外来的与之历史完全脱节的标准。比如,要求中国成为一个民主国家。在其有记载的5000年的历史上,它从未按人头统计过民意; 所有统治者都以皇帝的权利来统治,如果你不同意,你就会被砍掉头脑,而不是被考虑意见。”


4. Welcome the best the world has to offer. “Throughout history, all empires that succeeded have embraced and included in their midst people of other races, languages, religions, and cultures.”


拥抱和接受世界的赋予。纵观历史,所有成功的帝国都接纳并包含了其他种族,语言,宗教和文化于其中。


5. It’s about results, not promises. “When you have a popular democracy, to win voices you have to give more and more. And to beat your opponent in the next election, you have to promise to give more away. So it is a never-ending process of auctions—and the cost, the debt being paid for by the next generation. Presidents do not get reelected if they give a hard dose of medicine to their people. So, there is a tendency to procrastinate, to postpone unpopular policies in order to win elections. So problems such as budget deficits, debt, and high unmployment have been carried forward from one administration to the next.”


结果比承诺更重要。当你拥有一个靠民意决定的民主国家时,为了赢得声音,你必须提供越来越多的东西。为了在下次选举中击败你的对手,你必须承诺给予更多。所以这是一个永无止境的拍卖过程成本和债务由下一代支付。如果总统向他们的人民提供一剂苦口的药物,他们就不会再次当选。因此,有一种倾向就是拖延,推迟不受欢迎的政策以赢得选举。因此,预算赤字、债务和高失业率等问题已经从一个政府转移到下一个政府。


6. Governments shouldn’t have an easy way out. “American and European governments believed that they could always afford to support the poor and the needy: widows, orphans, the old and homeless, disadvantaged minorities, unwed mothers. Their sociologists expounded the theory that hardship and failure were due not to the individual person’s character, but to flaws in the economic system. So charity became “entitlement,” and the stigma of living on charity disappeared. Unfortunately, welfare costs grew faster than the government’s ability to raise taxes to pay for it. The political cost of tax increases is high. Governments took the easy way out by borrowing to give higher benefits to the current generation of voters and passing the costs on to the future generations who were not yet voters. This resulted in persistent government budget deficits and high public debt.”


政府不应该选择一条简单的出路。美国和欧洲政府认为,他们总能负担得起支持穷人和困难的人:寡妇、孤儿、老人和无家可归者、处于劣势的少数民族以及未婚母亲。他们的社会学家相信这样的理论:困难和失败不是由于个人的性格,而是由于经济体系中的缺陷。因此,慈善成为权利,依靠慈善生活的耻辱感消失了。不幸的是,福利成本的增长速度超过了政府提高税收支付能力的能力。增税的政治成本很高。政府通过借贷来轻松解决当前一代选民的更高福利,并将成本转嫁给尚未成为选民的后代。这导致了持续的政府预算赤字和高额公共债务。


7. What goes into a standard of living? “A people’s standard of living depends on a number of basic factors: first, the resources it has in relation to its population . . .; second, its level of technological competence and standards of industrial development; third, its educational and training standards; and fourth, the culture, the discipline and drive in the workforce.”


什么决定了人们的生活水平?人民的生活水平取决于许多基本因素:第一,与人口相关的资源。 。第二,技术能力水平和产业发展水平; 第三,其教育和培训标准; 第四,劳动力的文化、纪律和动力。“


8. The single most important factor to national competitiveness … “The quality of a nation’s manpower resources is the single most important factor determining national competitiveness. It is a people’s innovativeness, entrepreneurship, team work, and their work ethic that give them the sharp keen edge in competitiveness. Three attributes are vital in this competition—entrepreneurship to seek out new opportunities and to take calculated risks. Standing still is a sure way to extinction. . . . The second attribute, innovation, is what creates new products and processes that add value. . . . The third factor is good management. To grow, company managements have to open up new markets and create new distribution channels. The economy is driven by the new knowledge, new discoveries in science and technology, innovations that are taken to the market by entrepreneurs. So while the scholar is still the greatest factor in economic progress, he will be so only if he uses his brains—not in studying the great books, classical texts, and poetry, but in capturing and discovering new knowledge, applying himself in research and development, management and marketing, banking and finance, and the myriad of new subjects that need to be mastered.”


国家竞争力的最重要因素……“一个国家的人力资源质量是决定国家竞争力的最重要因素。一个人的创新能力、创业精神、团队合作和他们的职业道德决定了在竞争力方面的领先优势。在这场竞争中,三个要素至关重要。第一个要素是创业精神,要去寻找新的机会,并承担计算好的风险。静止不动是灭绝的必然途径。 。第二个要素是创新, 创造增值的新产品和新工艺。 。第三个要素是良好的管理。为了发展,公司管理层必须开辟新市场并创建新的分销渠道。经济的驱动力是科学和技术的新知识新发现,企业家应用到市场的新发明。因此,尽管学者仍然是经济发展中最重要的因素,但只有当他利用自己的大脑时才配得上这么说— 不是研究伟大的书籍、经典文章和诗歌,而是在捕捉和发现新知识,将自己置身于研究和开发、管理和营销、银行和金融,以及需要掌握的无数新课题。”


9. Earning your place in history … “A nation is great not by its size alone. It is the will, the cohesion, the stamina, the discipline of its people, and the quality of their leaders which ensure it an honorable place in history.”


在历史中赢得你的位置……“一个国家的伟大并不仅仅是它的规模。而是它的意志、凝聚力、耐力和人民的纪律性以及领导者的素质才使其成为历史上一个光荣的地方。”


10. Weak leaders rely on opinion polls. “I have never been overconcerned or obsessed with opinion polls or popularity polls. I think a leader who is, is a weak leader. If you are concerned with whether your rating will go up or down, then you are not a leader. You are just catching the wind … you will go where the wind is blowing. . . . Between being loved and feared, I have always believed Machiavelli was right. If nobody is afraid of me, I am meaningless. When I say something … I have to be taken very seriously.”


弱势领导人依赖民意调查。 “我从未对民意调查或欢迎度调查过度关注或痴迷。我认为这么做的领导者是弱势领导者。如果你担心自己的评级是上升还是下降,那么你就不是领导者。你正在迎合风向……你会去风吹的地方。 。 。 。在被爱和被害怕之间,我一直相信马基雅维利是对的。如果没有人害怕我,我就毫无意义。当我说话的时候…..我必须被非常认真地对待。”


11. We are fundamentally competitive. “Human beings are not born equal. They are highly competitive. Systems like Soviet communism have failed, because they tried to equalize benefits. Then nobody works hard enough, but everyone wants to get as much as, if not more than, the other person.”


人类从根本上是相互竞争的。 “人类并非天生平等。他们竞争激烈。苏联共产主义等制度失败了,因为他们试图平衡利益。然后没有人努力工作,但每个人都希望获得与另一个人一样多的东西。”


12. The value of history: “If you do not know history, you think short term. If you know history, you think medium and long term.”、


历史的价值:“如果你不了解历史,你的思考是短期的。如果你了解历史,你会思考中期和长期。“